In the United States, producer prices for couriers and express delivery services outpaced courier production workers' average hourly earnings by 25.2 points by December 2025, with both series rebased to January 2019 = 100. While the earnings index was 2.5 points above the price index in December 2021, pricing growth subsequently exceeded earnings growth across each following year. Over the September 2019 to September 2026 window, consumer prices for delivery and courier services rose 69.9%, compared to producer price growth of 67.1%.
Divergence between courier producer prices and driver hourly earnings
The divergence between the price index and the earnings index, both indexed to January 2019 = 100, shifted across the 2020 to 2025 period. In April 2020, the price index was 5.51 points above the earnings index, as the price index reached 103.6 while the earnings index was 98.09. That relationship shifted in December 2021, when the earnings index was 2.5 points above the price index, with the earnings index registering 115.9 against 113.4 for the price index.
Interpretation: The gap between the price index and the earnings index reversed direction between late 2021 and late 2022.
The price index moved above the earnings index at the close of 2022 and expanded that margin in every subsequent December. The price index was 8 points above the earnings index in December 2022, 11 points above in December 2023, 16.6 points above in December 2024, and 25.2 points above in December 2025, where the price index reached 156.3 compared to 131.1 for the earnings index.
Long-run cumulative growth across courier indicators
Cumulative growth from the first observed period varied across courier measures. Producer prices for couriers and express delivery services grew 67.1% over the span from September 2019 to September 2026, opening at 239.8. Consumer prices for delivery and courier services rose 69.9% across the same September 2019 to September 2026 window, beginning at 318.128.
Courier production workers' average hourly earnings rose 28.4% over the window from January 2019 to August 2026, opening at 18.8 dollars. Couriers and messengers employment grew 34.2% across the window from January 2019 to September 2026, beginning at 812.1 thousand.
Year-by-year path of courier hourly earnings
Courier production workers' average hourly earnings changed at varying December-on-December rates across the observed period. Measured each year's December against the December before it, earnings growth opened at 7.7% in 2020, peaked at 11.8% in 2021, and slowed to 2.3% in 2025. The cut captures yearly wage adjustments among frontline production workers and does not measure non-wage benefits or total employer compensation.
Year-by-year path of producer delivery prices
Producer prices for couriers and express delivery services showed sustained December-on-December growth across the reporting window. Measured each year's December against the December before it, producer price growth opened at 3.7% in 2020, peaked at 9.8% in 2022, and recorded 8.0% in 2025. The cut captures commercial price realization for delivery services and cannot measure contract terms or volume discounts.
Year-by-year path of consumer delivery prices
Consumer prices for delivery and courier services adjusted at shifting December-on-December rates from 2020 through 2025. Measured each year's December against the December before it, consumer price inflation began at 1.0% in 2020, peaked at 13.3% in 2022, and reached 9.7% in 2025. The measure covers final consumer delivery prices and does not track business-to-business shipping contracts.
Year-by-year path of courier employment levels
Couriers and messengers employment fluctuated across December-on-December measurement windows. Measured each year's December against the December before it, employment expanded 21.4% in 2020, contracted to a low of -5.0% in 2022, and fell 3.9% in 2025. The employment count tracks payroll headcounts and cannot show driver hours worked or route volume per courier.
Indexed comparison between producer delivery prices and driver earnings
Indexed to January 2019 = 100, the comparison between producer courier prices and courier production workers' average hourly earnings showed separation through August 2026. By August 2026, the producer price index stood at 166.5, while the worker earnings index stood at 128.4.
Interpretation: The gap between producer prices and courier earnings opened after 2021.
Over the twelve-month window from September 2025 to August 2026, courier production workers' average hourly earnings ranged between a minimum of 24.13 dollars and a maximum of 24.64 dollars, falling 0.9% year over year from 24.35 dollars in August 2025. Over the October 2025 to September 2026 window, producer prices for couriers and express delivery services ranged from 359.711 to 400.821, rising 11.4% year over year from 359.903 in September 2025.
Producer prices versus consumer delivery prices
The growth gap between producer courier prices and consumer delivery prices over the September 2019 to September 2026 window measured -2.8 percentage points. Consumer prices for delivery and courier services grew 2.8 percentage points more than producer prices for couriers and express delivery services. Producer prices grew faster than consumer prices in 2020, 2021, 2023, and 2024, whereas consumer prices grew faster in 2022 and 2025.
Rebased to January 2019 = 100, the producer price index reached 167.9 in September 2026, while the consumer price index reached 171.5. Across the twelve months from August 2025 to September 2026, consumer prices ranged from 465.269 to 540.51, rising 16.2% year over year from 465.269 in September 2025. Over the twelve months from October 2025 to September 2026, couriers and messengers employment ranged from 1,036.4 thousand to 1,097.3 thousand, increasing 0.3% year over year from 1,086.5 thousand in September 2025.
What this means
The data shows that producer prices for couriers and express delivery services expanded faster than courier production workers' average hourly earnings after 2021. In December 2021, the earnings index was 2.5 points above the price index; by December 2025, the price index was 25.2 points above the earnings index. Over their full shared tracking periods, producer prices rose 67.1% and consumer delivery prices rose 69.9%, compared to a 28.4% increase in hourly earnings and a 34.2% increase in employment. From August 2025 to August 2026, hourly earnings fell 0.9%, while producer prices rose 11.4% from September 2025 to September 2026. The data tracks published price and earnings series, and cannot show operational profit margins or net company earnings.
Methodology
This study analyzes four monthly time series published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, compiled by Finmile:
- Couriers avg hourly earnings, production (USD) (catalogue label CES4349200008), covering 92 periods from January 2019 to August 2026. 2. PPI couriers & express delivery services (catalogue label PCU492110492110), covering 93 periods from January 2019 to September 2026. 3. CPI-U delivery & courier services (catalogue label CUUR0000SEEC02), covering 91 periods from January 2019 to September 2026. 4. Couriers & messengers employment (thousands, CES) (catalogue label CES4349200001), covering 93 periods from January 2019 to September 2026.
Divergence and indexed comparisons were established by rebasing the published series to January 2019 = 100. Growth gaps evaluate percentage changes over common observation windows. The data counts prices, earnings, and payroll employment, and does not capture operating margins or unmeasured expenses.
References
- Couriers avg hourly earnings, production (USD), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
- PPI couriers & express delivery services, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
- CPI-U delivery & courier services, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Couriers & messengers employment (thousands, CES), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics